Mercredi 16 mars 2011

Especially people

China could have used its savings within the country. But the US has greater capability than China to invent new technologies, so using the savings in that country would generate higher income - if not now then in the future. Therefore, China and the US could engage in an inter-temporal trade in which China can store its savings (in bonds or other kinds of assets) in the US, which in turn can invest them in new technologies and generate higher income. That is to say, the Chinese and the US governments could have used the global imbalance to improve their peoples' welfare.Unfortunately, the above scenario exists only in theory. In reality, the US is not investing the money from China to generate income. Instead, it is using it to buy products made in China. This entails losses for both countries in the future and has made the global imbalance a real problem today. The pitfall is that the US thinks the imbalance can be corrected by adjusting nominal parameters such as exchange rates and interest rates. The QEII, initiated by US Federal Reserve recently, is one example of such corrective measures. The problem is not that banks do not have enough liquidity; they have plenty - they just do not have the confidence to lend them out. So, what the US needs is more targeted fiscal policies.But the defeat of the Democrats in the mid-term election has made that impossible to achieve politically. The Republicans do not like government spending and they have become more assertive on Capitol Hill after their mid-term election victory in November.

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In contrast, China is moving decisively toward a more balanced growth. One of the goals of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) is to reduce China's reliance on external demand. China is taking concrete steps consistent with this goal and in response to US Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner's call to contain the current account surplus/deficit within a reasonable range.They found that a 10 percent revaluation of the yuan would have minor effects on employment in China and the US. In China, employment will drop by 1.47 percent; in the US, it will increase by a negligible 0.06 percent. A 5 percent revaluation would have an even minor effect. The Americans, therefore, are barking up the wrong tree.The debate on the dollar-yuan exchange rate, too, fails to appreciate the fact that the Chinese and US economies are so deeply interdependent that it has become hard to define their separate "interests". China's is one of the most open economies when it comes to attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI companies contribute to half of China's exports. US companies operating in China contribute 44 percent of Beijing's trade surplus with Washington, with companies from other countries contributing another 20 percent. In 2009, iPhone alone contributed $1.9 billion to China's trade surplus with the US.The Americans portray global trade imbalance as a destabilizing factor for the world economy. But a deeper analysis will reveal another perspective. China's "excessive" savings have been created by China's "double transition": migration of workers from the countryside to cities and the huge increase in the country's working-age population. In the last decade, more than 100 million rural residents entered cities. And today, China's working-age population comprises 71 percent of the total, the highest in the world. President Hu is likely to send out more positive signals during his visit to the US. The year 2011 thus will see deeper cooperation between China and the US. Instead of being bogged down by the yuan's exchange rate, the two countries are likely to work on broader issues with the aim of rebalancing their economies. The ball is in now in the US court, and American policymakers have to realize that changes have to come from the real economy.

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The year 2010 was bumpy for Sino-US relations. On the political front, the United States has been irritated by what it sees as an "overly confident" China. On the economic side, China's revaluation of the yuan cannot satisfy some Americans' appetite for a buoyant rise of the yuan in the range of 20 to 40 percent.Against this background, some Americans, especially people on Capitol Hill, see President Hu Jintao's state visit to the US this week as an opportunity to increase pressure on China to make bolder progress on the yuan issue. On the Chinese side, however, no giant steps will be taken; the yuan is already on the revaluation track.To a large extent, the Chinese leadership's cautious attitude toward the yuan is understandable. Many people in the US, including a number of China experts, have failed to realize that like its American counterpart, the Chinese leadership, too, puts employment at the top of its agenda. In the US, the motive is votes. In China, it is social stability.The revaluation of the yuan, however, may not have a great effect on employment in China. Researchers at the China Center for Economic Research and the National School of Development in Peking University did a simulation study on the effects of the yuan's revaluation on the Chinese as well as the US economies.
Par andayhan - 0 commentaire(s)le 16 mars 2011

From pencils to socks to cups

Qinghe county, Hebei province, is China's largest cashmere production base. Many of its villagers began running online stores in late 2007.In the country's Donggaozhuang village, which has about 400 households, there are more than 20 stores with an annual trading volume of over one million yuan. A research report by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba said the rural hubs of online traders in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Hebei provinces have witnessed robust development in recent years.While such villages are cashing in on China's online shopping trend, the relatively slow Internet speeds and logistics systems are likely to impede their development, said the report.Experts say the community development model exemplified by Qingliuyan might ease the bottlenecks, because traders gathering together reduces costs.At the latest international commodity fair in Yiwu, 25 traders from Qingyanliu teamed up to organize promotional events, such as group buying."We are looking for sources of supply as well as potential buyers. We can develop better as a group," said Liu.General Electric Co (GE) announced Monday it will build an innovation center in Chengdu, capital city of southwest Sichuan province, focusing on the country's local healthcare market.According to GE, the Chengdu innovation center will be different from traditional research and development centers, as it will combine research and development sections with marketing ones.The center is expected to open this year, and is currently recruiting 380 engineers for research and development in areas such as healthcare, petroleum, natural gas and automation.According to GE, the center will develop tailor-made products or services for Chinese after studying local medical conditions and people's consumption capacity.

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Wu is among the 1,800 Taobao traders in Qingyanliu who buy products in nearby markets and sell them online. During the day, the villagers sit in front of their computers to receive the online orders. At dusk, the seemingly deserted village begins to buzz with activity."E-commerce has changed the lifestyle of our village. Instead of tending to our fields, we now use keyboards and mouse clicks to make money," says Liu Wengao, vice director of the local e-commerce association.Known as China's No 1 e-commerce village, Qingyanliu has produced 10 percent of Taobao's "golden crown" stores - that is, the stores which have made over 500,000 transaction records. In 2009, Qingyanliu villagers pocketed 800 million yuan ($121 million) from their online sales.The first step in the establishment of the e-commerce village was made in 2005 when Liu's e-commerce association helped build many five-storey houses in Qingyanliu, making low-rent housing abundant. From then on, small traders started to converge on the village, increasing its population from 1,486 to over 8,000.The advantage of the village is its proximity to Yiwu city, which is the world's largest wholesale market for a wide range of small items, from pencils to socks to cups, said Liu."The e-commerce market is big enough for our development. Instead of deterring competition, the traders benefit from sharing information with each other," Liu said.Statistics released by China's State Council Information Office show the number of Chinese Internet users had risen to 450 million by the end of last year - more than a third of the country's total population. Moreover, some 140 million of the nation's netizens have shopped online.China's total online retail sales in 2009 were estimated at between 253 billion and 500 billion yuan in 2009, according to Analysys, an international research firm.Given the huge business potential online, the villagers of Qingyanliu generously share their experiences.Trader Zhang Feng said the idea for his first deal popped up via a casual chat with a neighbor. Two years ago he opened his store with 40,000 yuan borrowed from the bank. Now he drives a luxury car.The clustering advantage has also attracted businessmen from other provinces to shift their bases to the village.Zhang Haiyang, a businessman from Anhui province, moved his online store base for daily necessities to Qingyanliu two years ago."Here, all the traders have representatives to negotiate delivery fees with the more than 20 companies. Besides, all other necessary services, like webpage designing, are available here. It surely is the right choice," he says.Qingyanliu is not the only place riding China's e-commerce wave.
Par andayhan - 1 commentaire(s)le 16 mars 2011

Ensure these universal rights

Martin Luther King III, president and chief executive officer of The King Center, was to deliver the keynote address at the annual holiday observance, held at Ebenezer Baptist Church, where his father preached from 1960 until his death in 1968.He has linked the holiday honoring the winner of the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize winner to the shootings in Tucson, Ariz., which left six dead and Giffords fighting for her life.King would have been 82 on Jan 15. Members of theKingfamilyalso planned to lay a wreath at the tombs of Martin Luther King Jr. and his widow, Coretta Scott King. King is the only American who was not a US president to have a federal holiday named in his honor. He has been recognized on the third Monday in January since 1986.The commemorative service caps a week of events that included a ceremony honoring King at the state Capitol and The Salute to Greatness Awards Dinner, which honored the late Sen. Edward Kennedy for his work on civil rights.His widow, Victoria, attended the ceremony and accepted the award on his behalf. The senator died at age 77 in 2009 after a battle with brain cancer. Also scheduled to speak Monday was US Attorney General Eric Holder.

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In the capital, ordinary Tunisians were sceptical."We do not trust this government because there are the same faces, like Ghannouchi ... and particularly Friaa," said passerby Mohamed Mishrgi. "It's as if Ben Ali's system is still there. It's for that reason that the demonstrations are continuing in Tunis. We want a new state with new people."Another passerby, Hosni Saidani, added: "It is difficult to trust these people because they participated in Ben Ali's system but they did not have the courage to say to him, 'Stop.' So how can they make a change towards democracy?" A British minister also called for more reforms and greater political freedom in Tunisia.The profound change in Tunisia in the past few days "is not yet the political reform that many people in that country hope for," Foreign Office minister David Lidington told parliament.Britain wanted "an orderly move towards free and fair elections and an expansion of political freedom in Tunisia," he said during a debate.In Washington, the White House said it welcomed the reforms announced by Ghannouchi, along with the commitment to investigate corruption, promote free media and free political prisoners."We expect the Tunisian government to ensure these universal rights, follow through on these stated reforms and hold free and fair elections in order to fulfill the aspirations of the Tunisian people," said White House spokesman Tommy Vietor.Tunisia's speaker of parliament, Fouad Mebazza, sworn in as interim president, had asked Ghannouchi to form a government of national unity, and constitutional authorities said a presidential election should be held within 60 days.Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on Friday after weeks of street unrest. His sudden departure sent shock waves through the Arab world.A senior central bank official, Habib Maalej, denied reports that the ex-president's family had taken 1.5 tonnes of gold worth $66 million out of the country."... The gold reserves in Tunisia are very well preserved and not one ounce was brought out," Maalej said in a telephone interview with the African Manager website.Tanks and soldiers were stationed on the streets of Tunis on Monday after clashes overnight between special forces and Ben Ali's security men, and the U.S. embassy said it would evacuate family members of its staff to Rabat on Tuesday.The event that set off Tunisia's unrest -- a man set himself on fire after police seized his vegetable cart -- seemed to have spurred copycat burnings. Four men were reported to have set fire to themselves in Algeria and one each in Egypt and Mauritania.He welcomed the Chinese petroleum companies to take part in new investment opportunities in Syria's land and sea oil fields in an interview with Xinhua at his office in Damascus.He hailed the role of China National Petroleum Corporation ( CNPC), saying "CNPC has worked with Kawkab oil company, a joint Syrian-Chinese company which started operation in 2003, to help increase the oil production in Gbeiba oil field to 14,500 barrels per day (BPD) from 6,100 BPD," Allaw said.
Par andayhan - 0 commentaire(s)le 16 mars 2011
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